Mortgage rate predictions?

Rates went up in April/May/June, and have declined or held steady for the past 3 weeks. In your opinion, what will the rates look like over the next 12 weeks? Why?


Like any other market, the only thing to predict is based on the Business Cycle.

The cost of Money (interest rate), when compared to the Business Cycle, has been unusually low for a very long time. And, in the 90's, we saw a rare mediocre


Mortgage rates at any point in time should reflect all the information known in the marketplace. What makes it seem like it can be predicted, is the stair step effect of certain economic indicators being released on a specific date. the market predicts

UK would you go for a variable rate of 2 r fixed mortgage at the moment?

Variable has lower rate but we're in trouble if the inflation rat goes up - do you think it might? Predictions based on knowledge prefereed!


Variable rates are risky and are tied to all different benchmarks that determine when the rate goes up or down (almost always up especially at this time). If it is an ARM that has a fixed rate for a number of years this would be ok only if you know almost

BCREA Housing Market Update - BCREA's Q3 Mortgage Rate Forecast (September 2011)

BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the August 2011 statistics and an in depth look at BCREA's third ...

Mortgage REITs Head to Europe as Barrack, Sternlicht Seek Deals

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Colony Financial Inc. and Starwood Property Trust Inc., the U.S. mortgage investors formed two years ago amid an expected surge of distressed debt, are turning to Europe as banks tighten lending and sell real estate loans.

Colony, a Santa Monica, California-based company led by Thomas Barrack, invested $30 million in July for a stake in five non-performing loans backed by buildings in Frankfurt and Berlin. Barry Sternlicht, the founder of Greenwich, Connecticut- based Starwood, calls Europe a “fertile field” and has made deals including a $71.5 million loan on a group of 45 properties leased by a unit of Metro AG, Germany’s largest retailer.

mortgage rate predictions - Bookshelf


Business forecasting
490 pages
Business forecasting

A Retail Sales Forecast Based on the Mortgage Rate As mentioned above, a portion of retail sales involves "big ticket" items that are financed by many ...

Did the Federal Reserve’s MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates? Did the Federal Reserve’s MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates?

In figure 9, the mortgage rate regression for the “normal era” is used to compute out- of-sample predictions for the mortgage rate. ...

Risk analysis, a quantitative guide
735 pages
Risk analysis, a quantitative guide

Figure 13.1 gives an example of two distributions modelling these interest rate and mortgage rate predictions. Clearly, these two components are strongly ...

What Mortgage Can I Afford: How Much Mortgage ... - Get Rid Of Debt

One of the few things that first come to your mind when taking out a mortgage will be; how much mortgage can I afford? You’ll probably thought about mortgage rate predictions. Thought about mortgage rate history? You will probably want to see a mortgage payment tables. The best fixed rate mortgage may be an option. There are a lot of things you may think, but first things first. If you think about it the most basic question you will be asking would be, how much mortgage can I afford? Because if you cannot afford a loan, you are not going to be able to buy your dream home. To some, they would try first to look for the best fixed rate mortgage. It will depend on the timing if you decide on looking for the best fixed rate loan.

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mortgage rate predictions - News


Bank Mortgage Loss Math Doesn't Add Up
Bank Mortgage Loss Math Doesn't Add Up NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- For all the doomsday predictions out there on Bank of America's(BAC) likely losses from mortgage-related problems, there is still only one sell-side analyst with an underperform

Should you cash in on slashed fixed rates?
Should you cash in on slashed fixed rates? And while this prediction is music to the ears of variable rate mortgage holders, it's not great news for the country as a whole. “As a mortgage holder, it might seem like positive news to see the market forecasting some fairly dramatic cuts to our

New Record Low Mortgage Rates: A Boost for Real Estate?
This chart appeared in the August issue of our Financial Forecast. As it shows, other economic indicators -- consumer sentiment, the Baltic Dry Index and US auto sales -- also show a similarly dismal picture. What does this mean for the US economy,

Mortgage REITs Head to Europe as Barrack, Sternlicht Seek Deals
18, Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for 2011 global expansion, saying the US and Europe are “dangerously close to a recession.” Banks in Europe have been slow to unload bad debt as they examine their books and devise strategies to minimize losses,

Forex - Weekly outlook: September 19-23
Later in the day, Canada is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to forecast the future direction of the economy, as well as government data on wholesale sales. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney is to

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